latest solar flare activity sept 5 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1564 (S14E01 -
Esi/beta-gamma) produced occasional C-class flares including a C6 at
05/0347Z and a C7/Sn at 05/0806Z, neither of which were associated
with significant radio emission. Region 1564 showed gradual spot and
penumbral decay during the period, but retained a beta-gamma
configuration due to polarity mixing in the vicinity of its
intermediate spots. Region 1560 (N04W58 - Eai/beta-gamma-delta)
showed minor spot loss in its trailer portion during the period. It
retained a delta within its intermediate spots, but the delta
appeared to be dissipating. The remaining spotted region were
unremarkable. No new regions were numbered. No Earth-directed CME
activity occurred during the period.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (06 - 08 September) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare during days 1 - 2.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to major storm levels
with a brief period of severe storm levels at high latitudes. An
interplanetary shock passed the ACE spacecraft at 04/2203Z
indicating the arrival of the CMEs observed on 02 September. Field
activity increased to major storm levels during 05/0000 - 0300Z
following the shock, then decreased to minor storm levels during
05/0300 - 0600Z. A further decrease to active levels occurred during
05/0300 - 0900Z. Quiet to unsettled levels occurred during the rest
of the period with active to minor storm levels detected at high
latitudes.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period (06 -
08 September) with a chance for active levels on day 1 due to
possible weak coronal hole high-speed stream effects.

III.  Event Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M    25/25/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

latest current solar flare storm activity july 9 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1515 (S15W89) produced
the largest event of the period, a C7/Sf at 09/0830Z.  Region 1520
(S17E33) continued its growth phase in area coverage, spot count and
magnetic complexity, but remained relatively quiet through the
period.  New Region 1521 (S22E21) was numbered as a D-type group.  A
large filament eruption was observed in the SW quadrant at about
09/0930Z.  At the time of its eruption, the 23 degree long filament
was centered near S35W32.  No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
during the previous 24 hours.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for X-class events for the next three days
(10 - 12 July).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels with
high latitude major storm intervals.  This activity was most likely
a result of CME effects from the 04 July M1 event.  ACE solar data
indicated wind velocities ranged between 400 to 450 km/s.  The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field was generally south
throughout the period ranging between -5 to -10 nT from about
09/0600Z through the end of the period.  Interplanetary field
strength was at 10 to 12 nT through most of the period.  A greater
than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit began at 09/0130Z,
reached a maximum of 19 pfu at 09/0430Z and ended at 09/1445Z.  This
weak SEP event was most likely associated with the 08 July M6/1n
flare from Region 1515.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods on day one (10 July) due to possible weak effects
from the 06 July CME.  A return to mostly quiet conditions is
expected for days two and three (11 - 12 July).

III.  Event Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jul 174
Predicted   10 Jul-12 Jul  165/160/155
90 Day Mean        09 Jul 125

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul  015/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul  018/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul  013/015-007/010-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           30/20/15
Major-severe storm    25/10/05

latest current solar flare storm activity july 9 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1515 (S15W89) produced
the largest event of the period, a C7/Sf at 09/0830Z.  Region 1520
(S17E33) continued its growth phase in area coverage, spot count and
magnetic complexity, but remained relatively quiet through the
period.  New Region 1521 (S22E21) was numbered as a D-type group.  A
large filament eruption was observed in the SW quadrant at about
09/0930Z.  At the time of its eruption, the 23 degree long filament
was centered near S35W32.  No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
during the previous 24 hours.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for X-class events for the next three days
(10 - 12 July).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels with
high latitude major storm intervals.  This activity was most likely
a result of CME effects from the 04 July M1 event.  ACE solar data
indicated wind velocities ranged between 400 to 450 km/s.  The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field was generally south
throughout the period ranging between -5 to -10 nT from about
09/0600Z through the end of the period.  Interplanetary field
strength was at 10 to 12 nT through most of the period.  A greater
than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit began at 09/0130Z,
reached a maximum of 19 pfu at 09/0430Z and ended at 09/1445Z.  This
weak SEP event was most likely associated with the 08 July M6/1n
flare from Region 1515.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods on day one (10 July) due to possible weak effects
from the 06 July CME.  A return to mostly quiet conditions is
expected for days two and three (11 - 12 July).

III.  Event Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jul 174
Predicted   10 Jul-12 Jul  165/160/155
90 Day Mean        09 Jul 125

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul  015/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul  018/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul  013/015-007/010-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           30/20/15
Major-severe storm    25/10/05

latest current solar flare storm activity july 6 2012

latest current solar flare storm activity july 6 2012

X1.1 Solar Flare / Minor Radiation Storm
Sunspot 1515 has been teasing us with countless M-Class solar flares and it finally did what it has been threatening to do over the past several days. A major X1.1 Solar Flare was detected at 23:08 UTC. This event triggered a 10cm Radio Burst and a Type IV Sweep Frequency Event. The blast did generate a Coronal Mass Ejection, but it looks to be headed south and to the west. This should have little impact on Earth. The protons blasted away from the flare site are currently streaming past Earth and a S1 Minor Radiation Storm is in progress.

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 06 2322 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 06 2304 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Jul 06 2306 UTC
End Time: 2012 Jul 06 2306 UTC
Duration: 2 minutes
Peak Flux: 520 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Added 7/6/2012 @ 18:35 UTC
Aurora Watch
Currently our Geomagnetic Field is fairly quiet and visible aurora would be possible only around the polar regions. An increase in geomagnetic activity will be possible starting tomorrow should a CME sweep past our planet as predicted. A potential for minor geomagnetic storming watch was issued today by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.

WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 20 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G1 (Minor) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2012 Jul 07

Updated 7/7/2012 @ 04:55 UTC
Solar Update / Large Sunspots
Solar activity is currently strong with an X1.1 Solar Flare detected around Sunspot 1515. A Coronal Mass Ejection was produced, but does not look to be Earth direcfted. While Sunspot 1515 currently has all the attention, we should also continue to monitor the large new sunspot that rotated into view off the southeast limb. This region did produce an M1.3 Solar Flare at 18:55 UTC Friday.

Make sure to check out this website on SolarHam Facebook and click "LIKE". You will get the latest solar updates and more in your news feed.

Large New Sunspot (Saturday) - SDO

---

NOAA Solar Report - [SIDC Report

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated Jul 06 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1515 (S18W50)
continued to produce M-class flares, the largest an M2/Sn at
06/0140Z. The region continued to grow to 900 millionths and
maintained a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 1513
(N15W65) showed slight decay and is now considered an Hsx-alpha type
spot group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for X-class flares for the next three days
(07-09 July).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm
conditions on days one and two (07-08 July) due to combined effects
from the CMEs observed on 03 and 04 July. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on day three (09 July) as effects from the

Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity may 16 2012

Solar Update
Solar activity remains at low levels with only C-Class flares detected. Sunspot 1476 continues to decay and is no longer a threat for strong solar flares. Sunspots 1482 and 1484 both are showing signs of growth, but so far remain stable.

Coronal Mass Ejection: A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is seen in the latest Lasco C2 images off the southeast limb. This was caused by a prominence lifting off in the southeast quadrant. It does not look to be Earth directed.

Updated May 15 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Previously active Region 1476
(N10W56) continued to decay over the past 24 hours, while producing
a few nominal C-class flares.  New Region 1485 (S19E65) was numbered
today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next 3 days (16-18 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet over the next 3 days (16-18 May).

Latest solar flare report April 17 2012

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Apr 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been low for the past 24 hours. A
long duration C1 flare was observed from new Region 1461 (N13E66) at
17/0809Z. An associated CME became visible in LASCO C2 imagery at
17/0800Z but does not appear to be Earth-directed. A filament
eruption occurred at approximately 17/1330Z near N24W40. The
associated CME was first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 17/1424Z but
is not expected to be geoeffective. New Region 1460 (N16E26) was
also numbered overnight and is considered a Dso-beta type spot
group. Region 1459 (S15E40) has shown a significant decrease in
areal coverage and is now a Dao-beta type spot group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare for the next three days
(18-20 April).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days one and two (18-19 April). Quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected with a chance for isolated
active periods on day three (20 April) due to a recurrent Solar
Sector Boundary Crossing (SSBC).

Strong Solar Flare from 1429 sunspot

Sunspot 1429 just generated another Coronal Mass Ejection and is seen in the latest Lasco C2 images. This explosion was much smaller than the event from last night, but should be a sign of things to come.

The Kp Index is creeping very close to the G1 Geomagnetic Storm Level. The Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is tipped sharply south and combined with a gusty solar wind, Aurora at high latitudes will be possible tonight.

The solar wind speed has shown a gradual increase today. This gradual increase is expected to continue over the next 24-48 hours due to a solar sector boundary crossing. Minor geomagnetic activity will be possible at high latitudes.

Latest Report of Solar Flare Activity Feb 2012

Updated Feb 20 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 051 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. There were three C-class flares
during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was a C4/Sf at 0509Z
from Region 1421 (N18E32). Region 1422 (N16W11) produced the other
two C-flares and is currently the largest group on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with some isolated
storm periods at high latitudes. Solar wind data from ACE indicated
the influence of a high speed stream from a coronal hole. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for active periods on the
first day (21 Feb) due to continued effects from the high speed
stream. A decrease to mostly quiet levels is predicted for the
second day (22 Feb) and quiet levels are expected to continue for
the third day (23 Feb).